My first prediction was that it was as good as inevitable that a ban on so-called conversion therapy would be implemented. On this I was wrong. One of the perhaps unforeseen developments of the past year has been the rapid swing away from the relentless transgender trajectory we had been on. Yes, there are still examples of the grip the ‘T’ has got on our institutions (such as the arrest of comedian Graham Linehan by five armed police officers for comments he had made on Twitter/X). But generally the tide has begun to turn the other way: the Supreme Court judgement on the priority of biological sex, police forces being told they are not to participate in Pride marches, the number of institutions bailing out of association with Stonewall, and the resulting reduction in funds for June’s Pride events. Against this backdrop it appears the Prime Minister doesn’t really want to cause himself more trouble by pushing ahead with the conversion therapy ban. For that we should be grateful.

My second prediction was, sadly, more on the money, with parliament approving assisted-suicide even more rapidly than I had feared would be the case. That this happened in the same week that MPs voted to decriminalise abortion up to the point of birth was, to say the least, a reality check – or, as Danny Kruger MP expressed it, a grave sin.

Assuming assisted-dying passes the remaining legislative hurdles (not necessarily a foregone conclusion) pastors will have to reckon with how they respond. It’s likely to get messy and be painful.

Another pastoral reality already confronting us is the state of the UK economy. Our national debt is almost equal to our national GDP and we are in the death spiral of having to borrow more billions simply to finance our debt repayments. This is not only a political and economic issue but ultimately one of social justice. We are becoming like the people who complain to Nehemiah, “We have had to borrow money to pay the king’s tax on our fields and vineyards” (Neh. 5:4). Debt as crushing as this reduces all room for manoeuvre. A supermajority should mean the government being able to enact radical reforms to change the situation but the opposite actually seems to be the case as rebellious MPs further limit room for government action. 

Of course, there are different political perspectives on what the solution to this might be, but pastorally it means shepherding people who are themselves feeling increasingly financially pressured, which quickly leads to anxiety. It is also complicated navigating a landscape in which a significant proportion of the population are at the same time to the left of Keir Starmer economically but to the right of Nigel Farage socially. All this has very real consequences for how we in the church talk about and seek to serve the poor and the alien.

A year in, what further predictions for future pastoral issues in a country governed by a supermajority? I’m not sure I’m brave enough to make them – other than that it is likely things will continue to be turbulent, and that there will not be a supermajority after the next general election. Through it all our hope and confidence need to be in the supremacy of Christ and the certainty of His plan.