The evidence – statistical and anecdotal – suggests that what looked like the terminal decline of the church in the UK is finally flattening out. Yes, there are still plenty of emptying and dying churches, but there are plenty of growing ones too. At the local level, and in meeting with church leaders nationally, the story I hear is that healthy churches are growing – often rapidly.

An honest assessment of the numbers indicates that a lot of that growth is being driven by immigration rather than conversion. If your church is in a town where there is a hospital or a university it is not difficult to add significant numbers of students and workers from overseas to our congregations. In addition, many churches have benefitted from the influx of Hong Kong Chinese relocating to the UK, and then there are the considerable number of Iranians here as refugees and converting to Christianity.

This is beautiful! It means increasing numbers of local churches now look more as things will be at the culmination of the ages (Rev. 7:9). The danger though is that growing churches can kid themselves about how well they are doing: if you’re near a hospital or university you haven’t really had to do anything!

This immigration driven growth can disguise some deeper demographic issues.

A total fertility rate (the number of babies each woman has) of 2.1 is required to maintain a stable population. In my birth year, 1970, the UK TFR was 2.5; in 2025 it was 1.5. In 1970 the median age in the UK was 33; in 2025 it was 40. In 1970 life expectancy was 72; in 2025 it was 82. There are now a million more over 60s in England than there are under 20s. For the first time in our national history, there are now more unmarried than married adults in the UK.

These changing demographics are globally typical. I first posted about these issues on Think 13 years ago. Back then the TFR in the USA was a stable 2.1; last year it had fallen to 1.6. The most famous example is South Korea, with a TFR of 0.8. South Korea may have already reached a demographic tipping point from which it is impossible to recover.

All this has significant societal implications, which is why shrinking birth rates are, belatedly, occupying the thoughts of governments around the world. Inverted population pyramids are economically, even existentially, troubling. The UK state pension might just still be in existence when I reach retirement age, it almost certainly won’t be for my children. Property prices in the UK are currently artificially high as demand exceeds supply. In 30 years’ time it is more likely that supply will exceed demand, and all those flats now being thrown up in our towns and cities will be standing empty, and increasingly worthless. In that timeframe lots of schools will have been mothballed as there will not be enough children to fill them. Within the next century South Korea may effectively cease to exist as a nation.

I’m used to churches which are relatively youthful and in which celebrating weddings and births is more normal than taking funerals. That is likely to change over the next couple of decades. This means there are questions we should be asking, and scenarios for which we should be planning.

How can we go from simply welcoming immigrants to genuinely including them, with the consequent changes required in our leadership structures, worship styles, and so on?

How do we do that while also reaching the ‘90%’ – the non-immigrant population of the UK?

How are we going to ensure sufficient young leaders continue to emerge in our churches?

How should our ministries be reorganised to recognise the realities of an aging population?

How can we celebrate and encourage marriage, and having children, while also honouring and including those who are unmarried?

In my church, like many others, we are blessed with a high proportion of children and young people. This is a sign of hope for the future. Yet as I look around at the congregation I am aware that it is likely I will be conducting more funerals in the last third of my ministry than I have in the first two-thirds. This means pastors are going to have to learn, or rediscover, gifts of visiting the elderly, preparing people for death, and conducting funerals which we may not have much previously exercised. Are we ready for that?

In my 30 years of ministry I’ve observed that each decade passes shockingly fast. Thinking carefully and honestly about what shifting demographics will mean for the UK church in the next decade is something we cannot afford to avoid.