Pushing our Luck image

Pushing our Luck

We (well, Andrew) have not been very good at political predictions on Think, but here goes. As the 'probably' has now become 'certainly' and two weeks today the UK will be taking part in European elections, I offer some predictions - no opinion, simply prediction. Andrew is free to offer different odds.

1. These elections will essentially be a re-run of the 2016 referendum and the vote will again be split fairly evenly between Leave and Remain.
2. The Remain vote will be split between the Lib-Dems, Greens, Change UK, and - to some extent - Labour.
3. The Leave vote will unite behind the Brexit Party as UKIP is now seen as an irrelevance and the Tories as unable to deliver Brexit.
4. The Brexit Party will thereby win most of the UK seats in the European parliament and will join a large number of MEPs from populist parties in other European nations - these will combine to do all they can to destabilise the institutions of the EU.
5. At that point Theresa May will at last be forced to resign.

See you on May 24th for the reckoning!

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