A Quick Thought on Trajectories image

A Quick Thought on Trajectories

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Here's a quick thought about trajectories, trends and slopes, slippery or otherwise.

If you’re wondering whether a person’s idea is likely to lead to another idea in due course, there’s a silly way of doing it, and a sensible way of doing it. The silly way of doing it is to ask the person (or people who agree with them) whether they think it will. The sensible way of doing it is to find someone who said something similar fifty years ago, and find out what they (and people who agree with them) think now.

Past performance is usually a better predictor of future performance than present speculation, I suspect. As any employer will tell you.

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